Monday, November 04, 2002

GOOCH Election 2002 Predictions

Are as follows (I posted these to my blog a couple of weeks ago, so with a few are my predictions):

<* means changed from two weeks ago>

House: +4 Republican (R:227 D:208)
Governorships: +4 Democrats (R:25 D:25)
Senate: +3 Republicans (R:52 D:47 I:1)

SKINNY: While the House will almost certainly remain Republican and the Democrats will almost certainly gain several governorships, the Senate remains the ultimate wildcard. The break could reach as high as +4 for the Republicans to +3 for the Democrats. Indeed, any call within that margin is just as justifiable as any other.

If Sununu goes down in NH, it's going to be a long night for the Republicans.

If Coleman pulls it out in Minnesota, those Judicial nominess of GWB can breath a sigh of relief.

However the actual distribution turns out, there are several ancilliary factors that can make this race even more interesting. The Republicans seem ready to take back Missouri...and with such a victory there could be a lame duck session that the R's could use to push some legislation/nominees through even if they do fail to take back the Senate. Also, after the Wellstone political rally debacle,
Gov. Ventura is sending an Independent to the Senate, further complicating the possible lame duck session. If the Senate splits 50-50, look for Dems to take a run at Lincoln Chaffee to switch, though reports are that R's have been wooing Chaffee (fearing another Jeffords like switch). Also, with those funky Louisiana-types, the question of actual control of the Senate may stretch (somewhat 2000 like) on in to December as both parties pour money in to the runoff race in an effort to tilt the balance. Finally, there are already wisps of election lawyering from the Democratic camp...though a race would have to be very tight (on order of 2000) in order for these rumblings to get any traction.

Talent (R) over Carnahan (D) (woohoo! My least favorite candidate looses!)

Coleman (R) over Mondale (D)* (backlash backhands Dems in squeeker)

John Coryn (R) over Ron Kirk (D) (still a Republican stronghold...for now)

Pryor (D) over Hutchinson (R)* (lesson: trumpet family values only if you've got them)

Allard (R) over Strickland (D) (Senator Dullard wins a second term)

Baucus (D) over Taylor (R) (kinda like a R from Rhode Island -> weird)

New Hampshire
Sununu (R) over Shaheen (D) (two heavyweights, but R registration wins)

Harkin (D) over Ganske (R) (another one of those schism races)

Chambliss (R) over Clealand (D) (national security trumps war record)

Alexander (R) over Clement (D) (easy win in an increasingly easy R state)

New Jersey
Lautenburg (D) over Forrester (R)* (holding my nose with this one)

North Carolina
Dole (R) over Bowles (D) (wins...but E. Dole is no Jesse Helms)

South Carolina
Graham (R) over Sanders (D) (solid conservative in a solid conservative state)

South Dakota
Thune (R) over Johnson (D) (really too close to call)

Landriu (D): plurality but below 50% (could decide the Senate in December)

Bush (R) over McBride (D) (Jeb coasts in. McBride needs to work on his math)

Davis (D) over (R) Simon (least popular victor this season)

New York
Pataki (R) over McCall (D) (a cruise control victory for this liberal R)

Perry (R) over Sanchez (D) (2020 this could be a different story)

Ehrlich (R) over Kennedy-Townsend (D) (you have to be a really bad candidate to be D and loose here)

O'Brien (D) over Rommeny (R) (too close to call, which is amazing considering the state)

Granholm (D) over Posthumus (R) (Posthumus hits the road post-haste with the
shape of an 'L' on his forehead - pick up for the Dems)

Blagojevich (D) over Ryan (R) (home of Lincoln gives way to the Dems)



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