Thursday, May 19, 2005

The judges war is commmmmming.
I recently met with Gary Jacobson, a political scientist working on party polarization. He believes that if Republicans force issues like Social Security and (by implication) judges, they are bound to alienate voters in the next election. However, I believe Gary's argument (that the electorate has become increasingly polarized) belies such a conclusion. If the parties have become more polarized, then it is quite rational for the Republican party and the Democratic party to take the positions they have (leaving aside issues of ethics, morality, and tradition of course). Pushing forward on judges appeals to the Republican base...and a stubborn filibuster approach appeals to the Democrats (and particularly their interest groups). As such, I'm predicting that no compromise will be worked out. This is going to come to a head...and the Republicans have the votes to win. As for the electoral consequences, I do not believe them to be as severe as Gary suggests. But we will see. D.GOOCH


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