Election Eve Predictions

Color me optimistic...

Predictions based on average polling results (difference), party ID/ Prez vote, polling trends, & gut feel.

SENATE
TN Corker (Rep Retention)

Corker 51%, Ford 43.6%
+ Republican Party ID state
+ Bush
+ Corker trend

RI Whitehouse (Dem pick up)

Whitehouse 48.7%, Chafee 43.3%
+ Democrat Party ID state
+ Kerry
+ Chafee trend

PA Casey (Dem pick up)

Casey 52.3%, Santorum 40.8%
+ Democrat Party ID state
+ Kerry
+ Santorum trend

OH Brown (Dem pick up)

Brown 51%, DeWine 43.3%
+ Republican Party ID state
+ Bush
+ DeWine trend

NJ Menendez (Dem retention)

Menendez 47.8%, Kean 41.7%
+ Democrat Party ID state
+ Kerry
- no apparent trend

MT Burns (Rep Retention)

Tester 48.5%, Burns 45.5%
+ Republican Party ID state
+ Bush
+ Burns

MO Talent (Rep Retention)

Talent 46%, McCaskill 48%
- Even Party ID state
+ Bush
- no apparent trend

MD Steele (Rep pick up)

Cardin, 48.3%, Steele 44.8%
+ Democrat Party ID state
+ Kerry
+ Steele (significant upward trend)

VA Allen (Rep Retention)

Allen 46.3%, Webb 46.3%
+ Republican Party ID state
+ Bush
- no apparent trend

SENATE OVERALL: Dems + 2

HOUSE PREDICTION + 13 Democrats
Republicans take 80% of 22 leaning seats (-5)
Dems take 90% of 13 leaning seats (-1)
Dems take 75% of toss ups (+9)